Data & Model
What’s under the hood: baseline data, panel-calibrated elasticities, and the simplified carbon cycle.
India baseline (2021)
CO2 (total)
2,548 Mt
Percentile: 98.4
CO2 per capita
1.8 t
Percentile: 39.8
GDP per capita (PPP)
8,050
Percentile: 32.3
Renewables share (proxy)
35%
Percentile: 64.0
Total GDP (PPP): 11.38T
Land area: 2,973,190 km²
Land area: 2,973,190 km²
Peers (large population) - 2021
| Country | Pop (M) | CO2/cap | GDPpc | EI | RE% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 1,414.2 | 1.8 | NaN | 4.21 | 35% |
| Pakistan | 239.5 | 0.99 | NaN | 4.21 | 42% |
| Senegal | 17.2 | 0.71 | NaN | 3.58 | 35% |
| Honduras | 10.3 | 0.96 | NaN | 4.22 | 46% |
| Vietnam | 98.9 | 3.45 | NaN | 3.85 | 24% |
| Ghana | 32.5 | 0.77 | NaN | 2.88 | 39% |
| Philippines | 113.1 | 1.29 | NaN | 2.78 | 28% |
| Brazil | 209.6 | 2.41 | NaN | 3.96 | 47% |
| Cambodia | 17 | 0.99 | NaN | 4.96 | 52% |
| Ecuador | 17.7 | 2.26 | NaN | 3.26 | 19% |
| Indonesia | 276.8 | 2.24 | NaN | 3.04 | 20% |
| Bolivia | 11.9 | 1.83 | NaN | 3.89 | 13% |
Panel-calibrated elasticities
These coefficients are estimated from a global country-year panel and then applied to India as proxy elasticities.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| beta_CI_CLEANCOOK_pp | 0.005211 |
| beta_CI_RE_pp | -0.017974 |
| beta_logitRE_Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population) | -0.036372 |
| beta_logitRE_Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) | -0.000657 |
| beta_logitRE_Energy imports, net (% of energy use) | 0.000777 |
| beta_logitRE_Research and development expenditure (% of GDP) | 0.205121 |
| beta_logitRE_total renewable patents | 0.000027 |
| beta_logitRE_Trade (% of GDP) | 0.008319 |
| beta_logitRE_Urban population (% of total population) | -0.002059 |
| gamma_EI_Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking (% of population)_pp | -0.003588 |
| gamma_EI_Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP)_pp | 0.00077 |
| gamma_EI_Gross capital formation (% of GDP)_pp | -0.001766 |
| gamma_EI_Manufacturing, value added (% of GDP)_pp | 0.012863 |
| gamma_EI_Research and development expenditure (% of GDP)_pp | -0.055387 |
| gamma_EI_Trade (% of GDP)_pp | -0.002007 |
| gamma_EI_Urban population (% of total population)_pp | -0.001931 |
PM2.5 proxy model fit
R²: 0.903
RMSE: –
MAE: 0.028
PM2.5 here is a *proxy* driven by GDPpc, CO2/cap, renewables share, clean cooking access and urbanization - then reduced by the Air Controls lever.
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Model notes (important)
- This is a *Kaya identity* simulator (Population × GDP/cap × Energy intensity × Carbon intensity), with a forest sink and a small carbon cycle approximation.
- “Renewables share” is treated as a proxy for carbon intensity; it includes traditional biomass in the underlying World Bank series.
- The slider impacts are calibrated from global panel correlations; they are conservative and bounded to avoid unrealistic extremes.
- This tool is best for *directional* insight and scenario comparison, not official forecasting.